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Insight of the Day: How high will 'heatflation' take Middle East food prices?

Heatflation, a term coined for rising food prices caused by extreme heat, is significantly impacting food prices in the Middle East. This phenomenon is driven by climate change, which is causing extreme weather events like heat waves and droughts that disrupt agricultural production.

Key takeaways:

  • Heatflation is a global issue but is particularly severe in hot regions like the Middle East.

  • Prices of staple foods like tomatoes and onions have tripled in some countries due to heat waves and droughts.

  • Heatflation disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, leading to social unrest and long-term developmental issues due to malnutrition.

  • While other factors contribute to inflation, heatflation is expected to play an increasingly significant role in food price increases.

  • Tackling heatflation requires substantial investment in climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience in the agricultural sector.


  • Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the Middle East are exacerbating heatflation.

  • Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to heatflation due to their limited resources and lack of access to modern agricultural technologies.

  • Food insecurity is on the rise in the region as a result of heatflation and other economic factors.


  • Heatflation is a serious threat to food security in the Middle East and requires urgent action.

  • Addressing heatflation requires a multi-faceted approach, including investing in climate-resilient agriculture, improving water management, and reducing food waste.

  • International cooperation is crucial to tackle the global challenge of heatflation.

Implications for brands:

  • Food brands operating in the Middle East need to adapt to the changing climate and invest in sustainable agricultural practices.

  • Brands should consider sourcing ingredients from regions less affected by climate change to mitigate the impact of heatflation on their supply chains.

  • Developing drought-resistant crop varieties and promoting efficient irrigation systems can help reduce the vulnerability of food production to extreme heat.

  • Supporting local farmers and investing in community-based initiatives can strengthen resilience to climate shocks and ensure food security in the region.

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