Beverages: The Great Wine Divide - Premiumisation Thrives as Mid-Market Falters in the US
- InsightTrendsWorld
- Aug 13
- 5 min read
Why it is the topic trending: The US Wine Market’s Luxury Surge Amid Economic Shifts
Economic Polarisation Reflected in Wine Sales – The wine industry is mirroring broader economic trends, with wealthier consumers driving growth in high-end wine sales while budget-conscious drinkers pull back on purchases.
Premiumisation Outpaces Declines – Wines priced above $15, particularly in the $15–$30 segment, are holding steady or growing despite an overall dip in volume.
Cultural Shifts in Drinking Habits – Younger generations are consuming less alcohol overall but are more intentional about quality and experiences, opting for higher-quality wines when they do drink.
Import Advantage – Affordable European imports are gaining traction, offering better price-to-quality ratios than domestic mass-market wines, especially under $50.
On-Premise Resurgence – More people are drinking at restaurants and bars, boosting premium by-the-glass and celebratory wine purchases.
Overview: Premiumisation Meets PragmatismThe US wine industry in 2025 is caught in a push-pull dynamic: while total case volume is declining, the average price point per bottle sold is rising. Consumers are either trading up for quality experiences or trading out entirely, leading to a hollowing out of the mid-to-lower price tiers. Imports—especially from Spain, France, and Italy—are capitalising on the opportunity to offer perceived luxury at accessible prices. For brands, success hinges on appealing to both the prestige-seeking collector and the value-conscious drinker.
Detailed findings: From Collectors to Casuals
Top-End Wineries Flourish – The top 25% of US wineries saw revenue growth of 22% in 2024–25; the bottom 25% suffered a -16% decline.
Luxury Wine Sales Surge – Rare and back-vintage wines (Bordeaux, Port, Champagne, Grand Cru white Burgundy) are appreciating in value and selling at record levels.
Volume Decline Persists – Domestic table and sparkling wine volumes fell 6% in June 2025; wines above $15 fared better with under 3% decline.
On-Premise Growth – Bar/restaurant visits for drinks are up, with value velocity +6% and ticket counts +9% YoY.
Import Opportunity – Wines under $50, especially $10–$20 imports, are seeing strong growth (Spain & France leading).
Young Consumers Favour Imports – Millennials and Gen Z are driving Prosecco and other European sparkling sales.
Key success factors of product (trend): Winning in Premiumisation and Value
Exceptional Price-to-Quality Ratio – Offering perceived luxury at an affordable cost.
Sustainability and Storytelling – Younger buyers seek authenticity and production transparency.
By-the-Glass Innovation – Making premium wines accessible in restaurants.
Strategic Tariff Management – Absorbing or sharing tariff costs to stay competitive.
Targeted Marketing to Experience-Driven Consumers – Positioning wine as part of lifestyle moments.
Key Takeaway: Two-Speed Market, One Clear OpportunityThe future of wine in the US is not “mass premiumisation” but “selective premiumisation” — brands must either go all-in on quality to win affluent and aspirational drinkers or deliver unbeatable value in the $10–$30 import segment.
Main Trend: Premiumisation with PolarisationUS wine is bifurcating into luxury-led growth and volume-led decline, with mid-tier wines squeezed and imports stepping into the value gap.
Description of the trend: The Premium-Value Barbell EffectThe market is forming a “barbell” structure: strong demand at the high end (luxury collectors and experience seekers) and steady growth for value-driven imports, with weakness in the middle ground.
Key Characteristics of the Core trend: Quality Over Quantity, With a Value Counterweight
High-End Outperformance – Growth in $40+ wines and collectables.
Value Import Strength – $10–$20 European wines gaining share.
Domestic Price Pressure – Under-$15 US wines losing traction.
Generational Consumption Shifts – Younger drinkers buying less but better.
On-Premise Momentum – Restaurants/bars key to premium wine growth.
Market and Cultural Signals Supporting the Trend: The New Wine Economy
Economic Stratification – Top-income households drive premium sales.
Health & Moderation Trends – Less frequent drinking but higher spend per occasion.
Cultural Shift Toward Experiences – Dining out, wine tourism, and social drinking.
Globalisation of Palates – Younger drinkers open to imports and alternative varietals.
Evolving Tariff Landscape – Strategic pricing for imports.
What is consumer motivation: Choosing Better, Not More
Prestige & Status Signaling – Luxury wines as social capital.
Value Maximisation – Imports offering “affordable luxury.”
Sustainability & Authenticity – Supporting transparent, eco-conscious producers.
Experience Seeking – Restaurant wine lists and events as discovery platforms.
What is motivation beyond the trend: The Psychology of Premiumisation
Emotional Connection – Wines tied to place, heritage, or personal milestones.
Investment Mindset – Collectable wines as appreciating assets.
Cultural Exploration – Exploring global wine regions through imports.
Descriptions of consumers: The Wine Barbell Audience
Consumer Summary:
Affluent collectors driving luxury wine growth.
Value seekers trading down in price but up in quality via imports.
Millennials and Gen Z preferring experiences and imports over bulk domestic purchases.
Older Gen X/Baby Boomers sustaining high-end buying habits.
How I see them:
Collectors – Wealthy, brand loyal, focused on heritage labels.
Aspirational Buyers – Spend strategically, explore imports, want quality assurance.
Younger Drinkers – Less volume, more experimentation, lifestyle-oriented.
Detailed summary (based on experience and article):
Who are they? Affluent wine enthusiasts, value-driven explorers, and experience-seeking younger consumers.
What is their age? 25–65+.
What is their gender? Mixed, but high-end skew slightly male; imports more evenly split.
What is their income? Mid-to-high income; collectors $150k+, value buyers $50k–$100k.
What is their lifestyle? Dining out, travel, wellness-conscious, culturally curious.
How the Trend Is Changing Consumer Behavior: From Case Loads to Curated Bottles
Fewer Bottles, Higher Spend – Consumers prioritise quality.
Restaurant-Centric Discovery – More first-time experiences on-premise.
Import Curiosity – Seeking new varietals and regions.
Reduced Loyalty to Domestic Mid-Tier – Brand-switching for better value.
Implications of trend Across the Ecosystem: The Wine Economy’s New Playbook
For Consumers – More choice in quality imports, higher spend per bottle.
For Brands & CPGs – Focus on high-quality storytelling and targeted pricing.
For Retailers – Curate selections around premium and value import segments.
Strategic Forecast: The Road to 2026
Premium Growth Continues – Especially in the $15–$30 and $40+ segments.
Imports Expand Share – Particularly from Spain, France, and Italy.
On-Premise Becomes Critical – By-the-glass sales drive discovery.
Mid-Tier Squeeze Intensifies – Brands must reposition or risk decline.
Digital Sales Growth – Luxury and niche imports sold online to affluent buyers.
Areas of innovation: Where the Cork Pops Next
Smart Tariff Management – Strategic cost-sharing with importers.
By-the-Glass Premium Programs – Offering luxury in smaller pours.
Digital Wine Clubs – Targeted subscription models for niche segments.
Hybrid Wine Events – In-person + virtual tastings for wider reach.
Sustainable Packaging – Appealing to eco-conscious premium buyers.
Summary of Trends:
Core Consumer Trend: Selective Premiumisation – Consumers are investing in fewer, better wines while avoiding low-tier domestic options.
Core Social Trend: Experience-Driven Consumption – Drinking occasions tied to social, cultural, and dining experiences.
Core Strategy: Barbell Market Approach – Focus on either luxury or high-value imports, avoiding the vulnerable middle.
Core Industry Trend: Import Renaissance – Affordable European wines gaining share from domestic producers.
Core Consumer Motivation: Maximised Value for Spend – Seeking the best possible quality for the price paid.
Final Thought: The Wine Glass Is Half Full—For the Right BrandsThe US wine market in 2025 rewards those who understand the new consumption psychology: less volume, higher value, and a taste for discovery. Brands that straddle the high end and value import markets—while staying relevant to health-conscious, experience-driven consumers—will toast to long-term success.
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