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Insight of the Day: Seven key trends that will shape the global wine industry in 2024

Structural Decline:

  • Mature Markets:  Traditional wine markets (France, Italy, US) face ongoing volume declines.

  • Exceptions:  Sparkling wine remains strong, and growth potential exists in developing Asian markets. Recruiting Younger Consumers:

  • Fewer Young Drinkers: Less alcohol consumption and competition from other categories (RTDs) hinder attracting Gen Z and Millennial drinkers.

  • Engagement of Existing Young Drinkers: Those who do drink wine are more involved and adventurous than previous generations. Premiumization Slowdown:

  • Less but Better Trend: Demand for premium wines is softening due to aging populations, economic pressures, and less frequent consumption among younger drinkers. Super-Premium Resilient: Growth continues in the highest price tiers. Low/No Alcohol Dominance:

  • Wine Leads: Wine dominates the growing market for low-alcohol beverages.

  • No-Alcohol Challenges: Low quality perceptions and limited availability hinder the growth of no-alcohol wine. Ecommerce: Wine Growth Slows

  • Maturing Channel:  Wine's ecommerce share is being eroded by growth in beer, spirits, and RTDs.

  • Long-Term Value: Continued investment in ecommerce remains important for future growth. Climate Change Impact:

  • Production Challenges: Extreme weather affects harvests and wine styles.

  • Adaptations: Sustainable practices, alternative grapes, and new vineyard locations are increasingly used to mitigate climate change. Sustainability Matters:

  • Consumer Focus:  Environmentally responsible production methods are valued by a majority of wine drinkers.

  • Premium Packaging Shift: Sustainability concerns drive adoption of formats like Tetra Pak and bag-in-box in premium tiers.

Implications:

  • Focus on Emerging Markets: Growth opportunities are greatest in developing Asian economies.

  • Target Engaged Drinkers: Prioritize the smaller but growing segment of highly involved younger wine consumers.

  • Navigate Premiumization:  Continued growth in super-premium segments while adapting to the softening 'less but better' trend.

  • Improve No-Alcohol: Address quality issues to make no-alcohol wine more appealing.

  • Remain Competitive Online: Invest in ecommerce despite slower growth to maintain engagement with consumers.

  • Innovate for Sustainability:  Demonstrate commitment to climate-smart practices while experimenting with alternative packaging.


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