Shopping: 5 key stats on tariffs: Retail ad budgets, fast-food restaurants could be hit hardest

• Why it is the topic trending:

  • Impact of New Tariffs: The article discusses the real and anticipated effects of recently implemented tariffs on imported goods in the US.

  • Consumer and Retailer Reactions: It explores how consumers are changing their spending habits and how retailers are responding to these tariffs and increased costs.

  • Focus on Key Statistics: The article uses specific data points to illustrate the scope and nature of these impacts across various sectors.

  • Implications for Different Industries: It touches on the potential consequences for retail, fast food, and advertising industries.

  • Expert Insights: The inclusion of data from reputable sources like Ipsos, Numerator, CivicScience, Wall Street Journal Intelligence, and the Interactive Advertising Bureau adds credibility to the discussion.

• Overview: The article examines the ripple effects of new tariffs on US retailers and consumers. It highlights that a significant majority of US adults anticipate higher prices for food, electronics, and other goods due to these tariffs, and many have already observed price increases. In response, consumers are adjusting their habits, such as seeking out deals and potentially cutting back on non-essential spending like fast food. Retailers and businesses, in turn, are bracing for negative impacts and are considering strategies like emphasizing value, transparency, and potentially adjusting advertising budgets.

• Detailed findings:

  • 70% of US adults believe tariffs will lead to higher prices on various goods.

  • 43% of adults have already seen price increases due to tariffs.

  • 41.4% of US consumers plan to look for sales or coupons to offset price increases.

  • 30.5% will buy fewer imported goods, and 26.1% will switch to US-made alternatives.

  • 50% of US adults are likely to cut back on fast food if tariffs lead to higher prices, with similar percentages for fast casual and full-service restaurants.

  • 71% of those making under $30,000 consider fast food a luxury.

  • Nearly half of C-level executives anticipate negative impacts on their non-tech businesses due to tariffs in 2025.

  • 30% of CFOs worldwide expect to pass on 91% to 100% of tariff increases to customers.

  • 40% of US advertisers expect retail/ecommerce ad budgets to be cut due to tariffs.

• Key takeaway: New tariffs are expected and already causing price increases for US consumers, leading to adjustments in their spending habits like seeking deals and potentially cutting back on dining out. Retailers and businesses anticipate negative impacts and are considering strategies to navigate this challenging economic environment.

• Main trend: The Tangible Impact of Trade Tariffs on Consumer Spending and Retail Strategies

• Description of the trend (please name it): The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment. This trend describes the observable and anticipated changes in consumer behavior and retail strategies in the United States as a direct consequence of new tariffs on imported goods. Consumers are reacting to expected and actual price increases by seeking cost-saving measures, potentially shifting their purchasing habits towards domestic alternatives, and reconsidering discretionary spending, particularly in areas like dining out. Retailers, in turn, are focusing on value communication and navigating the complexities of increased costs and price sensitivity.

• What is consumer motivation: Consumers are primarily motivated by maintaining their purchasing power in the face of rising prices. They are looking for ways to afford the goods they need and want without exceeding their budgets, leading them to seek out discounts, consider cheaper alternatives, and cut back on non-essentials.

• What is driving trend:

  • Implementation of New Tariffs: The direct cause of this trend is the imposition of tariffs on imported goods, leading to increased costs for businesses.

  • Anticipation of Further Price Increases: Consumers are aware that tariffs are likely to drive prices up, prompting them to preemptively adjust their spending.

  • Need to Manage Household Budgets: Faced with inflation and the prospect of higher prices, consumers are taking a more cautious approach to their spending.

• What is motivation beyond the trend: Some consumers may also be motivated by a desire to support domestic industries and purchase US-made products, even if it means paying a similar price or slightly more.

• Description of consumers article is referring to (what is their age?, what is their gender? What is their income? What is their lifestyle): The article refers to US adults across various demographics. The statistic about fast food being a luxury for those earning less than $30,000 highlights the disproportionate impact on lower-income consumers. The overall trend of seeking sales and considering alternatives likely affects consumers across all income levels, though the specific adjustments may vary based on their financial situation and lifestyle.

• Conclusions: The implementation of new tariffs is already having a noticeable impact on consumer behavior in the US, prompting adjustments in spending habits and forcing retailers to rethink their strategies to remain competitive.

• Implications for brands:

  • Retailers: Need to focus on communicating value, offering deals and coupons, and potentially highlighting US-made products. Smaller retailers might face challenges competing on price.

  • Restaurants: Especially fast food and casual dining establishments, may see a decrease in traffic as consumers cut back on eating out. They will need to emphasize value to retain customers.

  • Advertisers: May face reduced budgets from retailers and other industries affected by tariffs, potentially leading to a greater focus on performance-based advertising.

• Implication for society: Tariffs and their impact on consumer prices can have broader economic implications, potentially affecting inflation rates and overall consumer spending.

• Implications for consumers: Consumers will likely need to be more strategic in their purchasing, seeking out deals and potentially making trade-offs between imported and domestic goods or between essential and discretionary spending.

• Implication for Future: The "Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment" trend suggests that as long as tariffs remain in place, consumer behavior and retail strategies will continue to be shaped by the need to manage increased costs and price sensitivity.

• Consumer Trend (name, detailed description): The Strategic Saver: This trend describes consumers who are actively taking steps to manage their budgets in response to rising prices and economic uncertainty, such as seeking out discounts, using coupons, and making more deliberate purchasing decisions.

• Consumer Sub Trend (name, detailed description): The Dining-Out Downshift: A specific behavior within the Strategic Saver trend where consumers are reducing their spending on restaurants, particularly fast food and casual dining, as a way to save money.

• Big Social Trend (name, detailed description): The Sensitivity to Economic Fluctuations: Consumer behavior is highly responsive to changes in the economic environment, including inflation and trade policies.

• Worldwide Social Trend (name, detailed description): The impact of tariffs and trade policies on consumer prices and spending is a global phenomenon, affecting various economies and markets.

• Social Drive (name, detailed description): The Need for Financial Security and Affordability: Consumers are driven by the need to manage their finances and ensure they can afford essential goods and services.

• Learnings for brands to use in 2025 (bullets, detailed description):

  • Consumers are highly aware of potential price increases due to tariffs.

  • Value and deals will be key to attracting and retaining customers.

  • Transparency about pricing and product origin can be important.

  • Discretionary spending, like dining out, is vulnerable to cutbacks.

• Strategy Recommendations for brands to follow in 2025 (bullets, detail description):

  • Retailers: Implement and heavily promote sales, coupons, and loyalty programs. Clearly communicate the value proposition of their products.

  • Restaurants: Offer value menus, special promotions, and highlight affordability without sacrificing quality.

  • Advertisers: Focus on performance-based tactics and channels, emphasizing value and deals in their messaging.

• Final sentence (key concept) describing main trend from article: The article illustrates "The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment," showing how anticipated and real price increases due to tariffs are leading US consumers to modify their spending habits and prompting retailers to adapt their strategies.

• What brands & companies should do in 2025 to benefit from trend and how to do it: In 2025, retailers and businesses should capitalize on "The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment" trend by:

  • Prioritizing and heavily promoting value-oriented offerings, such as sales, discounts, coupons, and loyalty programs, to attract price-sensitive consumers.

  • Ensuring transparency in pricing and clearly communicating the value proposition of their products, especially if price increases due to tariffs are unavoidable.

  • Restaurants, particularly in the fast food and casual dining sectors, should focus on offering affordable menu options and demonstrating clear value to prevent significant cutbacks in consumer spending on dining out.

• Final note:

  • Core Trend: The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment: Tangible impact of trade tariffs on consumer spending and retail strategies.

  • Core Strategy: Emphasize Value and Affordability Through Promotions and Transparency: Responding to consumer price sensitivity.

  • Core Industry Trend: The Increasing Influence of Trade Policies on Consumer Markets: Tariffs directly shaping retail and consumer behavior.

  • Core Consumer Motivation: The Need for Financial Security and Affordability in Purchasing Decisions: Driving the shift towards value-seeking.

  • Final Conclusion: The article provides clear evidence that tariffs are having a direct and noticeable impact on US consumers and retailers, highlighting the importance for businesses to adapt their strategies to focus on value and affordability to navigate this evolving economic landscape.

Core Trend Detailed: The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment

• Description: The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment trend describes the observable and anticipated changes in consumer behavior and retail strategies in the United States as a direct consequence of new tariffs on imported goods. Consumers are reacting to expected and actual price increases by seeking cost-saving measures, potentially shifting their purchasing habits towards domestic alternatives, and reconsidering discretionary spending, particularly in areas like dining out. Retailers, in turn, are focusing on value communication and navigating the complexities of increased costs and price sensitivity.

• Key Characteristics of the Trend (summary): US consumers are changing spending habits due to tariffs, seeking deals, buying fewer imports, and cutting back on non-essential spending like dining out. Retailers are emphasizing value and navigating increased costs.

• Market and Cultural Signals Supporting the Trend (summary): The article provides several key statistics indicating this trend: 70% of US adults expect higher prices, 43% have already seen increases, 41.4% will look for sales, and 50% might cut back on fast food due to tariffs.

• How the Trend Is Changing Consumer Behavior (summary): Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive and strategic in their spending, looking for sales, considering US-made goods, and potentially reducing spending on dining out.

• Implications Across the Ecosystem (For Brands and CPGs, For Retailers, For Consumers, summary):

  • For Brands and CPGs: Retailers need to focus on value. Restaurants, especially fast food, may see decreased traffic. Advertisers might face budget cuts.

  • For Retailers: Retailers should emphasize deals, coupons, and potentially US-made products.

  • For Consumers: Consumers will need to be more strategic with their spending, seeking discounts and making trade-offs.

• Strategic Forecast: The "Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment" trend suggests that as long as tariffs remain in place, consumer behavior and retail strategies will continue to be shaped by the need to manage increased costs and price sensitivity.

• Final Thought: The article illustrates "The Tariff-Induced Consumer Adjustment," showing how anticipated and real price increases due to tariffs are leading US consumers to modify their spending habits and prompting retailers to adapt their

Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/5-key-stats-on-tariffs--retail-ad-budgets--fast-food-restaurants-could-hit-hardest