Entertainment: Sequel Salvation, Comedy Crash: 'Black Phone 2' Rings Up a Win as Originals Fizzle

InsightTrendsWorld
Oct 19, 2025
9 min read

What is the "Safe Bet Sequel" Trend: This trend signifies the film industry's increasing reliance on moderately-budgeted, established horror sequels to deliver reliable box office performance. In a volatile market where expensive tentpoles are underperforming and original comedies are struggling, studios are turning to known horror properties as a low-risk, high-reward strategy to guarantee audience turnout and stabilize their slates.

A Proven Formula in a Failing Market: After a disappointing year for Blumhouse, Black Phone 2 provides a much-needed win. By continuing a story that was a "sleeper hit," the sequel leverages a built-in audience, removing the marketing guesswork and financial risk associated with launching a new, original film.
Genre Reliability Over Star Power: The failure of Good Fortune, despite a cast including Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogen, demonstrates that star power alone can't open an original comedy. In contrast, the horror genre itself, combined with the trusted Blumhouse brand, provides a more bankable draw for its target demographic.
Profitability as the Primary Goal: This trend prioritizes a clear path to profitability. A film like Black Phone 2, with a $30 million budget, can be a theatrical success with a solid opening. In contrast, expensive originals like Tron: Ares ($180M) and One Battle After Another (>$130M) are destined to lose massive amounts of money, even with decent grosses.

Why it is the topic trending: This story is trending because the starkly different opening weekend fates of Black Phone 2 and Good Fortune provide a perfect, real-time case study of the current theatrical landscape. It highlights the unique resilience of the horror genre and serves as a dire warning about the theatrical viability of original, adult-oriented comedies, sparking a wider conversation about studio strategy and audience behavior.

A Clear Market Verdict: The box office numbers are unequivocal. The horror sequel is opening at No. 1 and meeting expectations, while the star-studded original comedy is "fizzling" and opening on the low end of projections. This stark contrast creates a compelling narrative about what audiences are willing to pay for in 2025.
A Break in the "Doldrums": The article positions Black Phone 2's success as a welcome relief for a "sleepy October box office." In a season of underperformers, any film that actually hits its tracking numbers becomes a major industry story.
The Blumhouse Bounce-Back Narrative: Blumhouse has had a string of disappointments in 2025. The success of Black Phone 2 is not just a win for the genre, but a crucial "box office bounce-back" for one of the industry's most important and prolific production banners.

Overview: In a clear demonstration of current audience appetites, Blumhouse's horror sequel Black Phone 2 is dominating the weekend box office with a projected $24.4 million debut, providing a much-needed jolt to a sluggish autumn season. Conversely, Aziz Ansari's star-studded R-rated comedy, Good Fortune, is fizzling with a projected $5.9 million opening, underscoring the extreme difficulty of launching original, adult-oriented comedies in the current theatrical landscape. This weekend's results paint a stark picture: the safe, familiar thrills of a horror franchise are a reliable draw, while expensive tentpoles like Tron: Ares and original star vehicles continue to struggle.

Detailed findings: The article provides a clear breakdown of the weekend's box office numbers.

"Black Phone 2" (Universal/Blumhouse): Earned $10.7 million on its opening day (including previews). It's projected for a $24.4 million opening weekend, slightly ahead of the original's debut. It received a "B" CinemaScore, a tick down from the original's "B+". Production budget is $30 million.
"Tron: Ares" (Disney): Earned $3 million on its second Friday and is expected to drop a steep -65% for an $11 million sophomore weekend. Its domestic total will be around $54 million after 10 days, a massive loss on its $180 million budget.
"Good Fortune" (Lionsgate): Earned just $2.4 million on its opening day. It's headed for a muted $5.9 million opening weekend, a poor result for its $30 million budget, despite a "B+" CinemaScore.
"One Battle After Another" (Warner Bros.): Expected to land in fourth place, earning $1.1 million on its fourth Friday. Its domestic total is $59 million, a huge theatrical loss against a budget north of $130 million.
"Roofman" (Paramount): Dropping to fifth place with $1.1 million on its second Friday, heading for a $3.6 million weekend (-55%). Its domestic total will be a muted $15.4 million.
"Truth & Treason" (Angel Studios): Opening to a projected $2.8 million and earning a stellar "A" CinemaScore.
"After the Hunt" (Amazon MGM): Failing in its expansion with a disastrous "C-" CinemaScore.

Key success factors of the "Safe Bet Sequel":

Built-In Audience: The film capitalizes on the goodwill and awareness generated by the first film, which was a "sleeper hit."
Genre Loyalty: The horror genre has a dedicated and reliable fanbase that consistently shows up for new releases, especially during the Halloween season.
Moderate Budgeting: A $30 million budget creates a much lower bar for success, allowing the film to become profitable quickly.
Clear Marketing Hook: The return of a memorable villain like Ethan Hawke's "The Grabber" provides a simple and effective marketing message.

Key Takeaway: The current theatrical market overwhelmingly favors the safety and familiarity of a genre sequel over the risk of an original, star-driven film, especially in the R-rated comedy space.

Original Comedy is an Endangered Species: The failure of Good Fortune is a dire warning that even a great cast and good reviews can't guarantee an audience for an original comedy in theaters.
Horror is the Theatrical Workhorse: The genre's ability to deliver consistent results on modest budgets makes it one of the most vital and reliable components of the entire theatrical ecosystem.
Big Budgets are a Bigger Gamble than Ever: The massive losses projected for expensive films like Tron: Ares and One Battle After Another highlight the extreme financial risk of non-franchise tentpoles.

Core consumer trend: "The Certainty Economy." In this trend, consumers treat their time and money as precious, risk-averse assets. When it comes to theatrical moviegoing, they are overwhelmingly choosing to "invest" in a known quantity—a sequel to a film they enjoyed—rather than gamble on an unknown original.

Description of the trend:

Risk Aversion: A strong reluctance to spend premium theatrical prices on a film that might be a disappointment.
The Sequel as a "Safe" Purchase: Viewing a sequel as a reliable product with a predictable level of quality and enjoyment.
"Streaming vs. Theater" Calculation: Consciously deciding that original comedies and dramas are "safer" to try at home on a streaming service, while reserving theatrical trips for guaranteed "event" films.

Key Characteristics of the trend:

Franchise-Driven: Viewing decisions are heavily influenced by whether a film is part of an established franchise.
Audience Score > Critic Score: Placing more trust in audience polling like CinemaScore than in professional critical reviews.
Pre-Planned Viewing: Treating a trip to the movies as a planned event centered around a highly anticipated release rather than a spontaneous activity.

Market and Cultural Signals Supporting the Trend:

The Weekend Box Office Results: The clear divide in performance between the sequel (Black Phone 2) and the original films (Good Fortune, Roofman) is the primary signal.
The "B+" CinemaScore for "Good Fortune": This indicates that the small audience who did see the film actually liked it, but the broader audience wasn't willing to take the initial risk.
The Success of "One of Them Days": The article cites this as a rare exception, proving just how difficult it is for an original comedy to break out.

What is consumer motivation: The primary motivation is to guarantee a positive return on their investment of time and money.

To Avoid Disappointment: The fear of spending $20+ on a ticket and two hours of their time on a bad movie is a powerful deterrent.
To Get a Predictable Experience: Consumers pay for a horror sequel because they want a specific kind of thrill, and the franchise name is a promise that it will deliver.
To Participate in a Shared Event: Seeing a popular sequel on opening weekend allows them to be part of a larger cultural conversation with a pre-existing fan community.

What is motivation beyond the trend: The deeper motivation is a search for reliability and comfort in an oversaturated and often overwhelming content landscape.

Combating Decision Fatigue: With endless streaming options, choosing a familiar sequel for a theatrical outing simplifies the decision-making process.
The Comfort of Continuity: Returning to familiar characters and worlds provides a sense of comfort and predictability.
Nostalgia and Brand Loyalty: A loyalty to the experience of the first film and the brand of the producer (Blumhouse).

Description of consumers: The Theatrical Strategists. This segment represents the modern mainstream moviegoer who is highly selective about what they will pay to see in a theater. They strategically allocate their limited "theater budget" to what they perceive as the safest and most worthwhile bets.

Consumer Detailed Summary:

Who are they: A broad cross-section of the moviegoing public, particularly in North America.
What is their age?: Varies by genre, but the "Certainty Economy" mindset is prevalent across demographics. Horror skews younger (17-34).
What is their gender?: Diverse.
What is their income?: Varies, but they are all conscious of the rising cost of going to the movies.
What is their lifestyle: They have numerous competing entertainment options (streaming, video games, etc.) and view a trip to the cinema as a premium, planned event rather than a casual pastime.

How the Trend Is Changing Consumer Behavior:

Abandoning Entire Genres in Theaters: Consumers are increasingly deciding that entire genres, like comedy and drama, are better suited for home viewing.
The "Wait for Streaming" Mentality: For any film that isn't a "must-see" event, the default behavior is to wait for it to appear on a subscription service.
Making Opening Weekend More Critical: Because audiences are so selective, a film's opening weekend and its initial word-of-mouth (like CinemaScore) are more crucial than ever to its survival.

Implications of trend Across the Ecosystem (For Consumers, For Brands/Studios):

For Consumers: They get a reliable experience from sequels, but this behavior leads to fewer original, non-franchise films being offered in theaters.
For Brands/Studios: This trend heavily incentivizes a risk-averse strategy focused on producing sequels, reboots, and franchise films, making it incredibly difficult to get an original mid-budget movie greenlit for theatrical release.

Strategic Forecast:

The Death of the Mid-Budget Theatrical Comedy: Expect to see even fewer original, R-rated comedies given a wide theatrical release. Most will be developed for and released directly on streaming platforms.
The Proliferation of "Micro-Universes": Studios will look at every moderately successful original film (especially in horror) as a potential franchise-starter, greenlighting sequels to build out more cinematic universes.
Star Power Shifts to Streaming: Big-name comedy stars will increasingly sign multi-picture deals with streamers, as that is where the audience for their original films now resides.

Areas of innovation (implied by trend):

Innovative Theatrical Marketing for Originals: Studios will need to innovate on marketing to turn an original comedy into a "must-see event," potentially through viral campaigns or unique theatrical experiences.
The "Producer as Brand" Model: The success of Blumhouse suggests an opportunity for other producers to build a trusted brand that can give audiences the confidence to take a chance on an original film.
Hybrid Release Strategies: Experimenting with shorter theatrical windows for original comedies to get them to streaming faster, acknowledging the "wait for streaming" mentality.

Summary of Trends

Certainty is the new currency.

Core Consumer Trend: The Certainty Economy Consumers are treating their theatrical ticket as a calculated investment, overwhelmingly choosing the safe bet of a familiar sequel over the risk of an original film.
Core Social Trend: The Streaming Default For non-event films like original comedies, the default consumer behavior has shifted from "going to the movies" to "waiting for streaming."
Core Strategy: The Horror Safety Net For studios, the core strategy is to use the reliable profitability of mid-budget horror sequels as a financial safety net to offset the massive losses from riskier, big-budget productions.
Core Industry Trend: The Genre Stratification The theatrical industry is becoming sharply stratified, with genre films (horror, sci-fi, action) seen as viable for the big screen, while other genres (comedy, drama) are being relegated to streaming.
Core Consumer Motivation: The Fear of Wasted Money The ultimate driver is a simple and powerful fear of wasting time and money on a disappointing experience, making the predictable thrill of a sequel the most appealing option.
Trend Implications for consumers and brands: The Originality Crisis The key implication is a looming crisis of originality in theaters, as consumer behavior is directly incentivizing a studio system that prioritizes safe sequels over risky new ideas.

Final Thought (summary): This weekend's box office is a perfect snapshot of the modern moviegoer's psyche. The success of Black Phone 2 and the simultaneous failure of Good Fortune is not a coincidence; it's a clear verdict delivered by an audience operating in a "Certainty Economy." They are telling Hollywood that in 2025, a guaranteed scare is a better investment than a potential laugh. The implication is a future where our cinemas are increasingly filled with the familiar ghosts of franchises past, while original voices must find a new home on the small screen. The call is coming from inside the house, and the message is clear: safety sells.